A Tesla analyst says he thinks Model 3 US deliveries doubled in Q2 — and the stock is surging (TSLA)


Elon Musk

  • Tesla shares rose 4% early Monday as investors awaited second-quarter delivery figures expected in the coming days and a bullish Tesla analyst forecasted a sizeable jump in Model 3 US deliveries. 
  • The JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha said in a note to clients he expects that Tesla delivered north of 40,000 Model 3 vehicles — around double what he expected for the first quarter.
  • Track Tesla shares here in real-time.

Tesla was among the market’s biggest gainers in early Monday trading, surging by as much as 4%, as a Wall Street analyst came out with a bullish forecast for second-quarter delivery results expected in the coming days.

The electric automaker likely delivered twice the number of Model 3 vehicles in the US during the second quarter as it did in the first quarter, predicted Joseph Osha, a bullish analyst at JMP Securities. 

“In general we think the Street is underestimating the pace of recovery in Model 3 demand in the U.S.,” Osha told clients in a report Monday morning.

He expects Elon Musk’s automaker delivered around 43,000 Model 3s in the US during the second quarter, or around double the first-quarter deliveries. Overall, he expects Tesla delivered 97,000 vehicles during that time, with “all of the upside coming from Model 3 volume.” That total figure is roughly in-line with what the company has forecasted. 

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The results, which analysts expect the company to report this week, follow Tesla’s disappointing first-quarter delivery and earnings results. When Tesla fell short of Wall Street’s delivery expectations last quarter, the stock plunged 9% and prompted analysts to adjust their expectations for what they saw as an underlying demand problem.

Still, Osha’s expectations for the most recent Model 3 figures in the US are below what he expected in past quarters.

“It is however still below Q3 and Q4 2018 volumes, and it is worth noting that our model does not show Model 3 volumes in the U.S. getting back to 2018 levels until late next year,” he wrote.

Osha maintains a $347 price target and positive rating on the stock, making him among the more bullish analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. His target implies a 55% rally from the stock’s closing price on Friday. 

The analyst’s view is also within the minority on Wall Street. Of those polled by Bloomberg, 12 analysts say “buy,” eight say “hold,” and 17 say “sell.” 

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