So far so good: Country gets 21% excess rainfall

Mumbai: It’s been three weeks since the southwest monsoon arrived in the country and its performance has been much to cheer about for now, as a surplus of 21 per cent has been recorded between June 1 and June 22, according to Met department’s data. IMD’s All India Area Weighted Rainfall shows that 126.1 mm of rainfall has been recorded across the country against a norm of 103.8mm

Of the 36 regional sub-divisions across the country, 15 sub-divisions such as Konkan and Goa, entire Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh have received excess rainfall, while only five sub-divisions have recorded deficient rainfall.

According to the India Meteorological Department’s evening bulletin on Monday, the monsoon is likely to cover the entire country right up to Jammu and Kashmir by Friday. The excess June rainfall has been beneficial to Kharif sowing and especially pulses that were severely affected during the unseasonal summer rains. According to agriculture ministry’s data, 4.51 lakh hectare of area has been sown with pulses, as against 4.32 lakh hectare in 2014-15.

The Met experts, though, have predicted that as the monsoon now progresses towards North India, it is likely to weaken and there will be a lull in the conditions that brought excess rainfall.

“The monsoon has been above normal in June as strong weather systems have prevailed on either side of the coast in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. To add to this, there was also cyclonic circulation that has moved from north-west towards Madhya Pradesh. According to Pai, the Madden-Julian oscillation was also a strong factor in boosting the rainfall. This dynamic weather system moves from west to east and causes intra-seasonal variation in rainfall. Pai also added that, the IMD is stands by its long-term monsoon outlook even as excess rainfall was recorded in June. The national forecaster has predicted deficient rainfall this monsoon season between June and September.

Another IMD official from Delhi, BP Yadav, director, National Weather Forecasting Centre, said, “Though the monsoon has been quite strong since onset, it does not indicate a good rainfall over the entire season. Monsoon always strengthens in phases. The rainfall will be good for another 5-6 days and then there is a possibility of weakening.”

Private weather forecaster Skymet said that in July, there will be 102 per cent rainfall. “We still believe that the monsoon will be normal this year and even in the next month, it will not weaken. The monsoon will arrive in north India at the end of this week,” said GP Sharma, vice-president, Skymet weather services.