NEW DELHI: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released the advanced gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for 2017-18 on Friday. The projections hold high relevance as the Finance Ministry prepares Budget estimates for the next financial year, which will be tabled on February 1.
Releasing its first advance estimate for the current fiscal, CSO stated that the Indian economy will expand by 6.5% in 2017-18. In September quarter, the economy expanded by 6.3 per cent, after nosediving to a three-year low of 5.7 per cent GDP growth in the June quarter after being impacted by the roll out of the goods and services tax (GST) and demonetisation.
These statistics are the first official full-year growth estimates after the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax Bill (GST).
The CSO estimated the GVA advance estimate at 6.1 per cent in comparison to 6.6 per cent on an year-on-year basis.
The per capita income during 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 86,660 as compared to Rs 82,269 for the year 2016-17. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.3 per cent during 2017-18, as against 5.7 per cent in the previous year. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs 19.77 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against Rs 17.69 lakh crore in 2016-17.
Reducing the farm growth estimate, the CSO for FY18 expected it to be around 2.1 per cent as compared to 4.9 per cent in previous fiscal. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the First Advance Estimates of production of major kharif crops for 2017-18 and targets based on rabi sowings.
The nominal GDP growth has also been brought down at 9.5 per cent in comparison to 11 per cent last fiscal. Impacted negatively by the rollout of GST, the CSO projected that the manufacturing sector will grow at 4.6 per cent in 2017-18, compared to 7.9 per cent in 2016-17.
However, in its report the CSO stated that in fiscal year 2018, Trade, hotel, transport industry growth estimate will increase at 8.7 per cent versus 7.8 per cent last year.
In 2016-17, the economy grew at 7.1 per cent. The second advance estimates will be released on February 28, based on the data for three quarters, and the provisional estimate to be released in May 2018 which will provide a clear picture of the economy.
Chief statistician TCA Anant says GDP grew 5.7 per cent in first quarter, 6.3 per cent in second quarter, so the trend indicates that the growth may be more than that in coming quarters. He said that the economy could expand by 7 per cent in next two quarters.